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Technology Stocks : Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO)
CSCO 79.09+0.9%11:24 AM EST
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To: The Phoenix who wrote (41522)10/26/2000 12:02:21 PM
From: larry  Read Replies (2) of 77400
 
gary,

I was slaughtered in May crash because I did not play by my own rule. I was lucky enough to foresee a nut crash which will yield to capitulation of other high-flyers with crazy multiples. I like CSCO here but am just not sure that I will give me a 60% return within 1 year. IMHO, CSCO has an even chance to see 40 as compared to seeing 70 in the next 3-6 months. The worst part of this market is that the bulls have tried their best to defend the support, but so far all rallies are fake rallies. The problem is that we are going too far in the valuation game that a good growth number is not able to justify even the currently battered valuation (as compared with highs).

I think that INTC and MSFT's numbers are basically bullshit. Taking away investment gains, MSFT shows negative growth year to year and INTC's growth is about 7%. Pretty pathetic to me. There is just no way that MSFT can rally 30% based on these aweful results. YHOO!'s trailing P/E is still 200 if you take away investment gains. CSCO, 15% of the earnings come from investment gains. Someone told me that the bottomline number does not matter (if you include investment gains). However, I believe that it will come back to haunt these issues in the long run. The bad thing about this bear market run is that when it's over, the valuations of these big techs will still be enormously rich as compared with traditional valuations.

larry!
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