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Technology Stocks : Qualcomm Incorporated (QCOM)
QCOM 173.20-3.3%3:59 PM EST
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To: LarsA who wrote (84895)10/26/2000 1:38:36 PM
From: engineer  Read Replies (2) of 152472
 
Hey, if you really look at it, the euros have shot themselves in teh foot. People in euro are delaying the new GSM rollouts and if WCDMA is vaporware, they will get their own FUD back in thier face.

Now they have political face to save and they will isolate themselves from the rest of hte world. China doesn;t want the same dictatorial GSM guys in there selling INTO china and not teaching them how to export. This time, they have a partner who doesn't care which way they make phones, just make them.

GSM is an old standard which was invented to solve one problem. The one problem was cross border charging and roaming across Europe. It solved this by having SIM cards and having 11 different standards on day 1. It took a considerable amount of time to implement due to this. This is why the SW stack is so vitally important. GSM was NOT invented because it was the technology forward looking pancea for all time. It lost that battle about 1997 when CDMA took over as the fastest growing technology. It is cheaper. But not much more. Attempts to CLAIM it is better are pretty weak.

Now there is a new problem in Europe brewing. First the operators are refusing to commit to wcdma or delaying it. Second, wiht the giant price disparity in license costs by country, some will be alot chepaer than others. this does not fit well into the European mentality which is to have fairly stabilized pricing across Europe. This will delay and complicate the roaming agreements for those implementing 3G.

Add to this that Europe is now entinering into a VERY depressed economy and the european handset makers will be hard pressed to meet future earnings expectations as well as raise capital to expand and build out wcdam there.

Will be a very interesting next couple of years while our "betamax" kicks ass on their VCR.
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