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Strategies & Market Trends : Ultra OTC Fund - UOPIX
UOPIX 134.32+1.5%Nov 21 4:00 PM EST

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To: James F. Hopkins who wrote (772)10/26/2000 1:48:45 PM
From: bob wallace  Read Replies (1) of 2063
 
well James

I certainly don't know what your OEX/VIX signal is, but the VIX itself is hardly calling for a buy - as I look at it now, it is approaching 32 - as I read the literature, 36 to 40 is required for a buy signal...

just checked AAII survey results. incredible but their are now 64% bulls and 17% bears, last night the Ameritrade index
(% of Ameritrade accounts that were net buyers) hit 91%, an all time high according to one long time observer

I am reminded of certain behavior experiemnets in college - once you trained a rat to do something, and then introduced
variable reenforcement, the rat would about kill itself repeating that behavior

the same behavior exists in humans (its why we dial a busy number 10 times in a row before giving up). well, it is becoming obvious that the buy the dips conditioning in investors is resulting unrealistic behaviors

the question is: what will it take to break this habit
(ie how low will it go...)

Bob
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