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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates

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To: Judith Williams who wrote (33849)10/26/2000 7:16:42 PM
From: mtnlady  Read Replies (1) of 54805
 
One thing that stands out to me in the difference between JDSU and NT and the sectors they both sell into. Nortel's sector is, by it's nature, "lumpy". In that sales tend to not be booked until equipment is installed. These installations are huge projects - in and of themselves money makers - but (!) the income from these projects comes in in *lumps*. So NT not only has to forecast sales of products but also installation of product.

JDSU, on the other hand, basically just sells product. The installation of the product is done by the likes of NT, LU and ALA. Their demand, and revenue, is going to be smoother and easier to predict.

Just a note for remembering. I remember last year when I had a large chunk of NT stock dropped into my lap via their buy out of Clarify (anybody remember them?). NT had the same issue last year with jolts and starts to their revenue line. I was used to a nice ramp up in revenue from my Clarify/SEBL holdings. No such luck with NT.

But the folks that followed NT a year ago - all pretty much folks who worked in the industry as NT wasn't a *big thing* yet to investors explained how Nortel's revenue stream was "lumpy" and that I shouldn't worry about it. NT is 'main stream' now and I think NT is going to have to do a better job of educating the analysts/press/investors now on their business model is different than a Cisco or JDSU. I was educated by others on the NT thread. Other investors may not be so lucky.

In short - NT will have to do an even better job with communication/education of the investing public than a JDSU will have to. We should watch and see if Roth learns from this. I think he will.
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