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Technology Stocks : JDS Uniphase (JDSU)
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To: Tony Viola who wrote (13527)10/26/2000 7:31:31 PM
From: peggylynn  Read Replies (2) of 24042
 
> DO NOT see any systematic slowdown -- no double bookings -- no stretch-out of deliveries

I wonder how they think they can tell what are double bookings. That type of thing faked out Intel this year, or so they say.

Note, I'm not implying anything, just wondering how they think they could see through that. Customers aren't going to say 'oh, by the way, I don't need all these widgets, but I'm afraid I won't get enough down the line.'

Tony - JDSU asked their customers about the double bookings. It's possible that the customers could lie about it. It's also possible that JDSU could be a lot less accommodating in the future to customers who choose not to play straight with them.

The fiber optics industry has barely entered its infancy when it comes to automating production. The bleeding edge components that the systems vendors desperately need to remain competitive will be in extremely short supply with long lead times. JDSU has already been in discussions with its customers for metro product introductions scheduled for the end of 2001.

There are very different realities at play than in the extremely mature PC chip industry. If a JDSU customer wants to go to an alternate manufacturer the 12-18 month wait for some critical parts would be suicidal.

JDSU also works with the carriers as well as the systems vendors, traditional in the telecommunications components market. JDSU said in the CC that they have discussed the carriers' capex as it relates to JDSU products so that provides another reality check for any direct customer who chooses to be less than straightforward. - peggylynn
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