Hi A.L.,
Do you want me to call the SI staff on this one or should I leave it to you? Your CIEN post last Friday was a classic and this may be a topper. It so nice to see the lucidity of the presentation, matched by irrefutable historical fact. I must say, if I were to guess what AMCCs fate is from here, your views are about as close a match as I can see to reality. I picked this up a trade on the first break, in at 155. I couldn't believe how the wind got knocked out of it so precipitously from there, but hung on because this one snaps back with a vengeance. Notoriously so in July. Now I know of others who are in the same boat I am. If this thing gets back to Wednesday mornings level tomorrow, there's going to be selling pressure as swing traders exit whole. I'm wondering where you see the buying power coming in to drive this back to the $180 level? Frankly, my contention is that the NT announcement and subsequent parsing has amounted to a "tipping point" in the sector. I'd think that folks like me, who weren't afraid of a dramatic slowdown in demand at that time now see two ominous developments. The first being the parlous state of the bond markets, with the spread between Treasuries and BB+ and lowers at their widest point since the chaos of summer/fall 1998. And on the other hand, we have the typical upstart things like Velio
velio.com
that are promising to eat the lunch of the likes of PMCS and AMCC. (Velio already has dedicated board locations on CIEN and SCMR line cards, chips are due Q4.)
Anyway, I'm being repetitive to your post. Just want to say, I doubt you're too far off with the QCOM comparison.
And your notion of being able to overlay charts of differing time periods is intriguing. Seems like a nifty project for an XML programmer. :)
Pretty spooky, huh?
Vanishingly, Casper*
*http://www.ducksbreath.com/vault/000126.htm
(The last line says it all) <g> |
