Momentum seen shifting slightly to Bush in Florida, nation despite issue concerns
By RAFAEL LORENTE, Sun-Sentinel
Web-posted: 1:03 a.m. Oct. 25, 2000
sun-sentinel.com
About the poll
The South Florida Sun-Sentinel poll was conducted by Florida Voter, a Davie-based independent nonpartisan polling firm, from Oct. 17 through Oct. 23. Florida Voter interviewed 606 people with a history of voting in statewide elections. They were randomly selected from a list of registered voters with working telephone numbers.
At a 95 percent confidence level, the margin of error for this size sample is plus or minus 4 percentage points. Theoretically, in 19 out of 20 cases, the results based on such samples would differ by no more than 4 points in either direction from what would have been obtained by interviewing all voters statewide.
SOURCE: Staff reports
WASHINGTON -- In an apparent reversal that reflects trends in the rest of the country, Republican George W. Bush is edging Democrat Al Gore in Florida in the volatile aftermath of the presidential debates.
A Sun-Sentinel poll released Tuesday has Bush and his running mate, Dick Cheney, leading Gore and his running mate, Joe Lieberman, by 46 percent to 41 percent. The difference in the latest poll remains within the 4-point margin of error, meaning the race is a statistical tie.
Green Party candidate Ralph Nader and Reform Party candidate Pat Buchanan trail with 4 percent and 3 percent, respectively.
An earlier Sun-Sentinel poll had Gore with a 2-point lead in a four-way race last month.
Although the momentum is shifting toward Bush in the recent poll, voters questioned said they have more faith in Gore when it comes to important issues such as Social Security, prescription drug prices, foreign policy and the environment. Voters favored Bush on crime, taxes and on education, where the Republican governor from Texas has managed to make inroads in a traditionally Democratic issue.
The shift away from Gore is significant according to observers because it is consistent with polls around the country that show Bush moving ahead since the three presidential debates began this month.
"Bush probably did better than people expected he was going to do, and Gore came across a little harder to take," said Michael Martinez, a political science professor at the University of Florida.
The poll also could reflect the long-term Republican trend in a state that many observers thought would be Bush country all along.
Martinez pointed out that Bush has spent a lot of time and money in Florida, a state many assumed would be his because it leans Republican and his brother Jeb Bush is governor. Florida's 25 electoral votes are a key component of Bush's strategy, making it almost impossible for him to win the White House without the state.
Jim Kane of Florida Voter, an independent polling firm that conducted the poll for the Sun-Sentinel, said that although Gore is favored over Bush on many issues important to Floridians, the gap has narrowed in the last month.
For example, when asked whether Democrats or Republicans would do a better job of protecting Social Security last month, Florida voters said Democrats by 48 percent to Republicans' 34 percent. This month the poll instead asked whether Gore or Bush would do a better job of protecting Social Security, and Gore was favored by a much narrower 44 percent to 39 percent.
Kane said the difference is important because for Gore to win the state he must attract Republican-leaning independents and swing voters. Those voters typically vote Republican unless they think Democrats are much stronger on important issues such as Social Security.
"It's still a very close race, but I think it's fair to say Bush is starting to make some headway in Florida," Kane said.
Kane said the change is not about Gore, whose approval ratings remained at 57 percent in Florida in the last month. Instead, he believes that closing the gap on key issues has helped Bush bring Republican-leaning swing voters home.
If Gore is to stop Bush's momentum, he will have to capture more of the people who voted for President Clinton in 1996. In the Sun-Sentinel poll, 13 percent of those who voted for Clinton in 1996 now say they will vote for Bush. Bob Dole voters, however, are remaining with their party, with only 4 percent saying they will now vote for Gore.
There have been suggestions that Clinton, who has kept a low profile during this election, should campaign for Gore in Florida and other swing states. But Clinton's continuing high job approval ratings may not transfer, and his negatives could hurt Gore.
Gracile Lake, a retiree from Pensacola who was interviewed for the poll, said she always votes Republican despite her Democratic registration. This year, her dislike of Clinton makes her even more convinced she'll vote Republican. She is not swayed by Gore's pitch, being spread through recorded phone calls featuring actor Ed Asner, that Bush will endanger Social Security.
"A lot of it is going to be a lot of hooey," she said. "They're going to promise you a lot of things and it's going to be status quo, or worse."
But Liz Lubow, a Gore spokeswoman in Florida, said the campaign will continue hammering at the differences between the candidates on Social Security.
"George Bush has been misleading folks about his Social Security plan," she said.
Lubow also pointed out that other polls have the race closer. A John McLaughlin & Assoc. poll conducted this month had Bush with a 1-point lead. And a Media General poll showed Bush with a 2-point lead in seven Southeastern states, including Florida.
Despite the apparent surge by Bush, and the lack of time before the election for any big changes, the race is still so tight that any jumps by Gore could swing the outcome.
"Any bounces are going to be small, but they don't have to be big," Martinez said.
Rafael Lorente can be reached at rlorente@sun-sentinel.com or 202-824-8225 in Washington. |
