Right or wrong is irrelevant when we're all advancing educated guesswork. Here's mine:
-- mutfund tax-loss selling season ends Monday because Tuesday is window dressing day.
-- money flow and price drops make clear which companies make for good window dressing.... sector leaders and leading sectors.
-- the cash accumulating from tax loss selling found good bargains in the right sector Thursday.
-- the JDSU report (oops, I lost a billion dollars in 3 months; plus all the gross revenues. my bad) was spun as sweet as cotton candy. Its nutritional value is irrelevant for a few days. The immediate pressure on the sector is off.
-- the money flows to the fattest for the next 3 trading days.
--MRVC reports Monday. ONIS reports Tuesday. NOPT reports Thursday (like this one; see AH news btw). CSCO reports a week from Monday. OPLK reports the day after CSCO... a few hours before BKHM reports.
--MRVC spinoff is due the week CSCO reports.
--NUFO and ONIS unlocks are not far off.
--Govt involvement, either the US or Saudi Arabia, in the oil situation, is near.
--The optical sector will see variances in individual performances, based on the factors I just noted.
--After 5 of 12 trading days broke 3100 to the downside and three challenges to 3000, support has held.
--Mkt sentiment is bullish for Friday and only a bad GDP or other bad news can turn Fri/Mon sour.
--Up or down, I don't expect heart-stoppers like Thursday for another 3-4 trading days.
--Declines next Thursday, Friday, Monday or rises? Depends which political party controls the oil spin.
And opticals will decline a little in November, but the serious optical downturn will come in Dec/Jan.
Just my best guess. |
