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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates

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To: BDR who wrote (33960)10/28/2000 7:34:01 AM
From: Mathemagician  Read Replies (2) of 54805
 
Does the thread have any suggestions on how best to prepare Crow?

On 10/23, discussing the travails of SEPR and why I don't hold biotechs, I wrote:
"I haven't had any of my present holdings gap down 40 points at the open (yet)."
Message 14642065

Two days later SDLI gapped down about 46 at the open. In the interest of avoiding the dreaded thread bloat, you may PM me your best recipes.


Here's a recipe that I'd like to share...


Close Open Gap %Gap Now %Decline
SEPR 120 81 39 32.5% 70 41.7%
SDLI 316 270 46 14.6% 252 20.3%


I bet that helps soften the bitterness a bit. :) The real point, however, is that we must remember that the price of a single share is essentially arbitrary. A company can make the price of a single share whatever it wishes by effecting either a split (lowers price per share) or reverse split (raises price per share). As a result, it is far more relevant to consider the percentage change than the actual dollar amount.

To continue with the example, pretend that we had bought $10,000 each of SDLI and SEPR at the close on the day before the gap down. We would have the following...


Close Open Gap Now Loss
SEPR $10,000 $6,750 $3,250 $5,830 $4,170
SDLI $10,000 $8,540 $1,460 $7,970 $2,030


Not that I'm particularly envious of either position, but I do think I know where I'd prefer to be if I had to choose!

M
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