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Technology Stocks : Kulicke and Soffa
KLIC 43.61+5.0%Nov 25 3:59 PM EST
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To: Gottfried who wrote (4465)10/28/2000 9:30:29 AM
From: scott_jiminez  Read Replies (3) of 5482
 
Gottfried - perhaps the take home lesson from the past 6 months is that the industry can be as negatively and severely impacted by disruptions on the supply side as it can by the universally appreciated decline on the demand side.

I was part of the many-membered chorus screaming to analysts and others, 'The SEM market has never been better, you idiot(s)!'. However a strong demand environment can overwhelm existing capacity and produce a logjam. This can lead to a backward-cascade effect that appears to be able to impact the sector almost to the same degree as a straightforward diminution in demand. A supply-based cyclical downturn is the exact opposite of what all of us were looking for....but, IMO, it's what we are currently experiencing.

In the future, we need to pay as much attention to supply as demand to gauge the sustainability of a cycle.
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