with Dow up 200, next should be a Naz move. I personally expect at least two days in the next couple weeks where the Naz jumps more than 125 points.
JW, as I recall you mentioning a couple of weeks ago, where's the catalyst to get the Naz out of this downtrend? What's going to reverse the rotation of cash from techs to DOW? We need a *proven* bottom on the Naz, and obviously havn't seen one yet.
Ummm, Intel/Msft good earnings weren't enough to get us out of this downtrend for more than a day, and yesterday after JDSU earnings was a poor excuse for a rally, and Cisco lost value...
Minimal Naz panic selling, no broad capitulation in sight, buying on the dip still alive, *but* post-dip rallies getting weaker each of last three weeks...
Good companies with high P/E's and good earnings still getting whacked without good reason (Sun, Siebel, Ariba, EXTR, NT, etc)...
Oct '98 and March/April '00 both saw the DOW bottom and head sharply north a few weeks before the Naz really tanked. DOW 9650 10 days ago, then headed sharply north...
Cisco earnings and the election are the lone remaining psychological points near term. Cisco reports Monday 11/6 night and election is Tuesday 11/7...
Everyone yearns for a capitulation, says we can't bottom until it happens, but it doesn't happen and it doesn't happen and it doesn't happen...
Disillusionment and disgust with tech stocks still growing...
Therefore....
Looks like we're being set up for a Naz erosion this coming week to get us used to living in the 3000-3150 range, followed by an induced panic Friday-->Cisco Monday. Intraday bottom Monday 11/6 2650-2750.
If so, there should be a modest non-institutional rally this Monday, probably tailing off into the afternoon, maybe a spike up early Tuesday before spending the rest of the day sliding down, another run(s) at 3000 Wednesday/Thursday to suck in the last of the buy-on-the-dippers, and a miserable rally failure on Thursday/Friday closing about 3000 or a few points under, setting up for Cisco Monday.
Look for this weekend's endorsements of optical sector to have only a weak effect on those stocks, note NT closed at 42 1/2 Friday and Cisco at 50 1/2, and those are a lot more classy than my current EXTR and SCMR <g>.
Recall very sharp morning-after selloff after Intel earnings. Look for everyone to start assuming that Cisco will sell off after earnings.
DOW should nose over and start coming gently down late Tuesday or Wednesday. MSFT and INTC should hold their values right up to the end.
Sigh..... Just a fever-dream.
- Dway |
