VOLTAIRE'S PORCH-MODERATED Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : VOLTAIRE'S PORCH-MODERATED

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To: Clappy who wrote (10167)	10/28/2000 3:18:14 PM
From: lurqer	Read Replies (1) of 65232

What do you think is the best way to prepare or invest in a recession? Do you play the short side of the market? Buy utility stocks? Buy precious metals? or mining companies? Well I'll take a swag at this as long as you realize that's all it is. invest in a recession? I think the recession will be to ephemeral to invest in. With modern inventory control methods, I just don't see a protracted recession. Guess I'll never make it as a permabear. <gg> Do you play the short side of the market? Surely. Usually by selling front month calls, but that's just a personal proclivity. So here's how I plan to play the Capitulation phase (note the operative word is plan and things rarely work as planned). I "plan" to wait until some "the high flyers" get overextended and sell those calls. Then while we're in the Capitulation, I "plan" to buy some of the last positions for my Millennium Portfolio. If you remember early in the year, I made several posts about the coming volatility being an opportunity to build the portfolio of your dreams. Well that's what I've been doing this year, and I see the upcoming Capitulation as the last opportunity to do some burnishing of the long term positions. But you need to realize that as long as I believe we're in a secular bull market (even though currently in a bear corrective interlude), I'm a LTB&H kinda guy. Also, don't forget the market discounts the future. If we do go into recession, the market will rally (and I mean big time) long before we're out of the recession. These "plans" (subject to change) fit my personality, presumed skills and goals. Examine yours and plan accordingly. Anyway FWIW, I hope this helps. lurqer

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