all mst read 52% upside in naz in 12 months: Big Money Poll Results: INTC, MSFT, WCOM, CSCO, EMC, GE, AOL, JDSU, T, HGSI, AMZN, JNPR, ORCL, SUNW, CIEN, YHOO
Jacqueline Doherty summarizes the results of Barron's latest Big Money Poll. She provides the mean consensus responses of 120 money mangers to the questions in the survey.
-Yearend targets for major indices in 2000 and 2001 respectively:
Dow Industrials: 10,989.40; 11,308.79
S&P 500: 1480.85; 1530.76
Nasdaq Composite: 3831.99; 4022.71
-Highs and lows for major indices in next 12 months:
Dow Industrials: 12,134.38; 9774.83
S&P 500: 1637.05; 1276.06
Nasdaq Composite: 4708.48; 3060.11
-Roughly half the participants remain bullish, down from 59% in May; number of bears remains consistent
-Favorite stocks: INTC, MSFT, WCOM, CSCO (5 votes); EMC, GE (5 votes); AOL, JDSU (4 votes); T, HGSI
-Most overvalued stocks: AMZN, CSCO (23 votes); JDSU (14 votes); GE (7 votes); JNPR, ORCL, SUNW, CIEN, YHOO
-Industry picks and pans in the next 6-12 months:
Technology (52%), healthcare (41%), and Financial (36%) sectors ranked highest among the leaders
Technology (48%), Consumer Cyclicals (30%), Energy (24%), and Basic Materials (24%) ranked highest among the laggards
-Predictions for 2000 and 2001:
GDP Growth Rate: 4.6%; 3.7%
CPI: 3.5%; 3.4%
P/E multiple (S&P 500): 26.1; 24.5
Growth in Corp Profits (S&P 500 operating): 12.8%; 10.3%
-Personal Portfolio allocation:
Stocks: 77% vs. 77% 6 months ago
Bonds: 9% vs. 9% 6 months ago
Cash: 15% vs. 13% 6 months ago
-Beating the S&P in 2000:
Professionally: 85% yes; 15% no
Personally: 76% yes; 24% no
-Uncertainty about outcome of Presidential elections
-Best performing sectors under Presidents Bush and Gore:
Bush: healthcare, energy, and technology
Gore: technology, financial, and healthcare
-sonki |
