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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis
SOXX 295.15-2.3%Nov 11 4:00 PM EST
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To: scott_jiminez who wrote (55)10/28/2000 10:33:51 PM
From: Donald Wennerstrom  Read Replies (2) of 95396
 
Scott,

I well remember those days - I was convinced that recovery was just around the corner.<gg> So much for logic and the stock market - never the twain shall meet!<gg>

The last 8 weeks have been brutal. I have read some articles where the CEO's of these companies are as mystified as anyone.

Do you remember Red Dragon? He had it all figured out - he kept it very simple. I will paraphrase as I remember his stance. "The semis are cyclical - they topped out in March - the insiders sold immense amounts of stock at that time - therefore I am out and will wait for the next cycle" Red Dragon used logic, but at the top level. He really didn't care about the increasing bookings, earnings projections, etc that should have led to better prices. All he cared about was that the top was achieved and the insiders had bailed out. That was enough for him.

In any event, we now have a strange situation. The semi-equips have "tanked" big time, but it's not clear the cycle is really over. What happens if good bookings and earnings continue in the next 6 months? Will the stock prices stay where they are, or go down even further, waiting for the big contraction in bookings and earnings to appear - someday?? It's called being between a "rock" and a "hard place".<gg>

Don W.
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