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Strategies & Market Trends : Rande Is . . . HOME

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To: Kevin Shea who wrote (39869)	10/29/2000 12:35:04 PM
From: ~digs	Read Replies (1) of 57584

I wrote this in a PM but felt it was worth sharing... -------------- Nov to Feb looks favorable... 'But will it end up being a big dead cat bounce for techs?' is what I keep asking myself. Is the general rate of innovation greater than the consumer demand for it... When buying a new TV, is the typical guy going for an HDTV, or is he buying the less expensive bigscreen further down the aisle? Lots of people still choose to dial-up to the net... they don't recognize what they're missing... yet! I can imagine a situation whereby the masses need some time to digest all this new gadgetry. For instance, maybe two years from now PALM's valuation will be better justified? Right now PDAs are still niche market. The average joe simply has no interest in them... yet. I personally would love to see some 'mania' again this year. I prefer to buy long and those gains from last winter were incredible. However, the environment this year is unquestionably different... I want the mania (greed), but my intuition tells me we likely won't go parabolic again for at least the next few years. Meanwhile we're near term oversold by most every measure... and there will probably be a very nice tradable bounce in techs relatively soon. I plan on starting to commit funds at around ~2900 COMPX if we get there. I do think the most amount of people would be caught off guard if after the election... we rallied hard for a few straight months back to 5000 (and possibly beyond). Since the markets are 'anti-conventional wisdom'...I think this too is something to watch out for. Couldn't happen without interest rate cuts and fed priming of money supply tho... IMO. -------------- Kevin, nice looking chart on ERICY... siliconinvestor.com Happy B-day Rande! Go Vikes! :-)

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