Hi edward,
Thanks for the thoughful and thought-provoking reply. I think we're closer to being on the same page than you might expect.
Thanks for the mention of Colin Campbell. I found this SciAm article to be worth reading again in view of the recent developments in da awl patch:
dieoff.com
Your post seems to imply that because these oil fields were found that the problem is solved. End of story. We can
agree to disagree on that.
No sir, we don't have to disagree. For it is an endless story and the chapter just closing now is that OPEC was stymied for 2 decades, with one minor political interupption, by the rapid advance in production in the non-US, non-OPEC world. In other words, the problem wasn't solved but the crisis was pushed into the future.
Second, if we are swimming in oil, where is it? Why, it's in the ground. Because the proximate cause of the current high price level has nothing to do with the amount of oil in reserve and everything to do with booming demand, inadequate transport and refining capacity and the markets perception. As you've correctly noted.
Your understanding and explanation of the current situation in the oil patch seem very competent to me. I've nothing further to add, other than these random synaptic firings.
Alan Greenspan recently participated in a Cato Institute conference and I've been unable to locate a transcript of his keynote speech there. If anyone on the thread has a URL for this I'd be appreciative. I did see a part of the speech on C-SPAN. It was largely devoted to energy policy and specifically the oil bidness. I'd really love to scour Greenspan's comments because it appears that he is of the opinion that by recognizing the tremendous backwardation of the market, he's identified the current high prices as of less than crisis management level importance.
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Permabear Alert: Some on this thread will be here because they are, well, just too gloomy for their own good. Here's something that is guaranteed to lighten the burden of apocalyptic doom, at least for an evening:
cato.org
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This Just In Dept.:
Without realizing that I've become insanely seduced to dark side by tradermike and his ilk, a clairvoyant friend has just sent this collection of bon mots ~
(On going to war over religion) - "You're basically
killing each other to see who's got the better
imaginary friend." -Yasir Arrafat (PLO leader)
"Luge strategy? Lie flat and try not to die."
-Carmen Boyle (Olympic Luge Gold Medal winner 1996)
"Women might be able to fake orgasms. But men can fake
whole relationships." - Sharon Stone
"There are only two reasons to sit in the back row of
an airplane: Either you have diarrhea, or you're
anxious to meet people who do." - Henry Kissenger
(former US Secretary of State)
"My girlfriend always laughs during sex - no matter
what she's reading." - Steve Jobs (Founder: Apple
Computers)
"My cousin just died. He was only 19. He got stung by
a bee - the natural enemy of a tightrope walker." -
Dan Rather (News anchorman)
"I saw a woman wearing a sweatshirt with 'Guess' on
it. I said, "Thyroid problem?'" - Arnold
Schwarzenegger
Honesty is the key to a relationship. If you can fake
that, you're in." - Courtney Cox (Monica on "Friends")
"Hockey is a sport for white men. Basketball is a
sport for black men. Golf is a sport for white men
dressed like black pimps."- Tiger Woods
"Things you'll never hear a woman say: 'My, what an
attractive scrotum!'" -> Patricia Arquette
"I read somewhere that 77 per cent of all the mentally
ill live in poverty. Actually, I'm more intrigued by
the 23 per cent who are apparently doing quite well
for themselves." - Jerry Garcia (Grateful Dead)
"Capital punishment turns the state into a murderer.
But imprisonment turns the state into a gay
dungeon-master." - Rev. Jesse Jackson
"My mother never saw the irony in calling me a
son-of-a-bitch." - Jack Nicholson
"The Web brings people together because no matter what
kind of a twisted sexual mutant you happen to be,
you've got millions of pals out there. Type in 'Find
people that have sex with goats that are on fire' and
the computer will ask, 'Specify type of goat.'"
-Jason Alexander (from Seinfeld)
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The Cabrito Kid |
