Broadband connected devices...........................
newsbytes.com
Broadband Content To Split Into Distinct TV, PC Camps - Report
By Kevin Featherly, Newsbytes
CAMBRIDGE, MASSACHUSETTS, U.S.A.,
25 Oct 2000, 10:37 AM CST
It may not be quite a case of divide and conquer, but a new Forrester Research study released Tuesday suggests
that when it comes to broadband content, a decidedly divisive force is heading down the pike: television.
The report, "Broadband Content Splits," penned by a team led by analyst Bruce Casrel, suggests that in the next
few years, television will fashion a kind of continental divide between broadband content types. Video-heavy,
lightly interactive multimedia will flow to TVs, while heavily interactive, software-driven packages will run
into PCs, the report says.
It also predicts that, within two years, TV set-top boxes and modem-equipped game consoles like Playstation 2
will deliver broadband connections to 9 million TV screens. When that happens, the changes to the broadband
market will be fundamental, the report indicates.
"Entertainment content will flow away from uncomfortable PCs in the den, toward comfy couches in front of the
living room TV set," Casrel writes. "PCs will be left for practical, task-oriented activities."
Currently, the lack of broadband access in homes limits the importance of rich multimedia; fewer than 10
million US households have broadband Internet connections to date - a fact reflected in the failures of
rich-media Web sites like the Digital Entertainment Network and Pseudo.com. But now, demand for broadband
access is exploding, the report says.
"Between cable modems and digital subscriber line (DSL) service on phone lines, providers hook up an
average of 4,000 new customers a day," the report states. "On the telco side, DSL leader SBC now takes 17,000
orders a week for high-speed service."
Once broadband access begins to take hold, Casrel indicates, two factors will come into play that will
determine which side of the split broadband content offerings will fall - the types of content being delivered,
and the development of appropriate devices at which to aim specific forms of rich content.
"(Devices) are going to become, I think, more and more important," Casrel said, adding that he expected there
will be "broadband-connected devices all over the house." TVs and modem-equipped game consoles will be
the most prevalent non-PC broadband content receptors, Casrel said. "But you can add in home stereos, home
security monitors, audio boxes" and the like, he said.
Casrel said that a fundamental change will come over television, which no longer will be strictly about
broadcasting. And the broadband entertainment services that exist principally on the Web, video- and
animation-driven operations like AtomFilms.com and Icebox.com, will probably find a place on television as
well as the PC.
"Just imagine," Casrel said, "in two or three years from now when you have a broadband set-top box and you
want to watch something, and one of the things you want to watch is AtomFilms(.com). It just so happens that
their program guide looks different, it sort of looks in between the Web and TV. But it works pretty well."
That's not to say that Web is the wrong place for a company like AtomFilms, however, Casrel said. "The Web is
one place for AtomFilms, it's not the wrong place," he said. "It's probably not the ideal place. It's not the place
where they're going to make the most money. But it is a place where they can explore deeper and deeper
niches."
Ultimately, he said, a company like AtomFilms could wind up split into two divisions, one targeting the home
theater and one aiming for the PC. "Things will move between the two," Casrel said. "Things that fail on the
Internet side will move down to the TV side, and things that succeed on the Internet side will move up to the TV
side."
Among the study's other projections:
- About 191 million devices will connect via broadband in 2005.
- By 2005, PCs will account for just 36 percent of all broadband devices.
- Feverish broadband demand will stabilize access prices. Last year, the report notes, cable modem service
averaged $40 a month, $20 less than DSL service. But Verizon and other DSL providers now match cable
prices. "Neither side needs to drop prices further," the report says.
- Web portals will better succeed by focusing on improved navigation, not delving into video aggregation.
On this last point, Casrel notes, "That doesn't mean that (we're) going to give up doing entertainment-oriented
portals, it just means that most of the (broadband) consumption ... will be on entertainment devices. (The PC) is
not the only game in town that can handle broadband content anymore. There are going to be a lot of devices that
have their hand in the broadband cookie jar."
Casrel told Newsbytes his report is pulled together from industry projections by cable companies and PC
companies, and from Forrester's own past analyses. Also used in the report were data from game console
companies and other broadband business sectors, he said.
Forrester Research is online at forrester.com
Reported by Newsbytes.com, newsbytes.com
10:37 CST
(20001025/WIRES TOP, ONLINE, BUSINESS, PC/BROADBAND/PHOTO) |
