Wow. It's become a bit dark on this thread. Depression has set in, judging by the lack of "content".
So, I guess we've all come to the conclusion that we are heading for another systemic hiccup like in '98. Settling in for a long wait while prices slowly sink to the bottom. Hmmm...bargains to come. Bank failures, currencies crashing, asteroids approaching...etc. Good thing our fav co.s loaded up on the cash when they had a chance, wish I had done the same. Don't know if cash will do any good for asteroids, though.
Anyway, I just wondered what happened to the future? It seems to have faded to black. Remember MP3 players galore, wireless PDAs with 3G connections, high bandwidth IP connections to the home, Inet appliances? All gone, apparently, along with the narrow spreads between telco and govt debt.
Yet, I hear rumours of parents gnashing teeth over the lack of availability PS2's for Christmas, with their mysterious, unused net connection. Not enough capacity, says Sony. So, this PS2 uses the TV as a monitor, has a DVD/CD drive, and will probably connect to a high BW Inet connection. All the ingredients for an Internet entertainment center. High speed games over the internet, music on demand, movies?, and yes, probably SI.
I'm using my computer (how last generation of me, no X-box or PS2) in the living room right now. It's hooked up to the stereo and the monitor is almost big enough to watch a movie (I'm using it to read SI while I listen to Moby's "Play" in MP3 on a playlist that probably is good for 24 hours). If I had a high speed connection to the net (too far out in the sticks for cable or DSL...but considering DirecPC), a nice,very large, hi-res display that didn't cost a king's ransom to show DVD movies like they were meant to be seen, a Bluetooth enabled mouse/keyboard, and a wireless device to replace my cordless/cell phone, nirvana would be closer.
But I'll forget all that, we're never going to produce any of these things---the depression is upon us. No more wireless bandwidth, no fiber optics, no big LCD hi-res screens, and more importantly, no more silicon devices. Back to the caves. <grin> All these new 300mm fabs are going to be used to turn out high technology dinner plates instead of driving down the cost of silicon devices.
Seriously, I suppose that all this stuff will come (and probably soon), but will it be profitable? Can these new fabs get the prices of displays, Bluetooth enabled Inet appliances to the consumer at a decent price? Will the bondholders lash the telcos to the past, or will high bandwidth to the home continue to march from home to home?
Will we have a mad rush of buying to implement this brave new consumer world? Will the overleveraged, underpaid American consumer (does anyone else in the world buy this stuff?) be able to get one more mortgage out of that palace of leverage they are living in to pay for this stuff? Or have they suffered one margin call too many? Is there just the hangover from the party to look forward to? |
