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Strategies & Market Trends : Stock Attack -- A Complete Analysis

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To: Terry Whitman who wrote (34327)	10/29/2000 10:40:36 PM
From: Lee Lichterman III	Read Replies (3) of 42787

>>Burn me twice, shame on me. <g><< Yeah AG killed me in 98 too. However I think things were a little worse then than now. We were already in the gridlock stage at that point which was why we were all heavily short. No one thought we were going up then except for the grossly naive that deserved to have their money donated to us. Asia was in a total shambles versus now where they at least try and bounce on their own once in a while. Europe was showing signs of disintegrating and the whole world seemed about ready to end. Right now, no one cares, everyone is looking for a bottom and people are still buying looking for profits versus just trying to get out with an acceptable loss like then. As I posted before, I still have the cover of the Time Magazine issue that asks, "Is the Boom Over" with people in party hats falling over the edge of a crashing market chart. We don't have anything like that now unless you count a Barrons cover with a bear on it a couple weeks ago. Another thing that makes me think AG will wait to cut rates is he is no dummy. He knows we are coming to the strong season for stock buying and we are also entering X-mas buying season for retail. Why prompt people to accept more credit card mailers and max them out buying presents or ease the amount of cash to buy stocks at the time of year when stocks are most likely to try and go straight up to re-inflate the bubble further? Why not wait and see how much exuberance is brought on by just the seasonal egg-nog induced buyers then add tweeking later. I really think AG has a chance to let some air out of this before the next President gets into office and keep a full deck of playing cards ready in case it is needed later for a real crisis. HE has seen what happens when he cuts rates already and it wasn't good. If he waits until a few speculators get taken out first and the others get the **** scared out of them, then he might be able to ensure more of the money goes where it is needed rather than straight into pipe dream fluff stocks. I think one thing AG learned from the last cuts was that he moved too early as evidenced by the amount of cash that was quickly dumped into the market. I think he wants to wait until people are deciding which bill to pay and not which luxory item to choose from. Of course none of us know what goes on behind closed doors at those meetings. Heck they may be day trading and getting liquored up for all we know. <ggg> Good Luck, Lee

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