Very good point Kenneth. If there is a shakeout, it's the secondary players that will be get taken out by the top 10 Carriers (companies like Viatel, Colt, Equant, etc.etc.).
NT primarily gets business most of their business from the big 10 so any industry rationalization is actually good for NT and bad for new start-up vendors trying to crack the Carrier market.
In the next 2 to 3 years, I suspect there will be a substantial rationalization of Carrier/Services industry as the weak, underfunded players dissappear and the networking industry goes global, dominated by 10 to 15 HUGE, and I mean HUGE multi-national players like BT, AT&T, Deutche Telecom, NT&T, and most of the remaining PTT who have deep pockets and governments to fund their buildout.
NT will be the LAST vendor to be affected in my opinion and it is only when new networking vendors like Sycamore, Corvis, Ciena, CSCO, etc.etc. start to get whacked, that's when we know that the market is rationalizing and even then, as I said, that may all be good for NT since that would turn the service industry into global oligopoly controlled by the 10-15 top companies who will be strengthened in their ability to control price and the backbone. As long as NT maintains this client base as the primary vendor, their growth will be fine. |
