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Gold/Mining/Energy : Solv Ex (SOLVD)

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To: Larry Ricker who wrote (3063)5/24/1997 4:50:00 PM
From: JJB   of 6735
 
Larry

I would always be long. My children are going to need a secure source of petroleum if they are going to meet the demographic challenge of my genration's retirement. Sending somebody else's children to the Middle East with the predictable results is the other option.

At worst by being long Solvex, has had the impact of resources being put in place. For instance if Solvex does not survive in it's current form, gas lines, boilers, and other capital expenditures will be in place and these resources will be developed. This is a three to four year lead on what Mobil and Shell are doing. Solvex's management was smart enough to make this play. Maybe Solvex's management should not have proceeded after orchestrated short smearing limited it's ability to secure capital. They have been playing catch up ever since.

In some earlier posts you stated that results of the primary extraction (logwasher) was no trivial matter. I questioned Tonto with his knowledge of mineral extraction of why he felt it won't work, I have not heard back. I believe to be short means you don't believe in the economic viability of this process, I ask you the same question.

Since I don't know the total position of shorts both covered and otherwise, I have a hard time computing odds, power shorts normally have better information as to these things. Playing the odds I don't believe given the upside of unlimited liability in short covering equals the reward of shorting from current levels or if the stock traded at 50. If this process proves in commercial viability the only similarity to Bre-X is that extrapolations of bitumen yields to low quality sands / clays are going to get thrown around, numbers with many many zeros. Perhaps the further kicker of minerals makes this too much of a straw to gold story.

I believe aggressive shorts have made a critical error in going after this company. Unlike a silicon investment it doesn't matter if they are late to market. If you fill up with gas in Chicago you don't care if the pipeline started off a tanker in Galveston or out of Fort McMurray. In the commodity business the only factor that matters is the cost of production and distribution.
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