metal re: <The dollar is likely unsustainably high, but as I've said before, there will be plenty of time to increase gold investment allocations>
...No offense metal; but just another euphemism imo - re: "plenty of time" ... ?
In my opinion; if anything that this market has not presented to traders; is "plenty of time"... on either the upside, or the downside.
Much of the up & down moves in this market are made in very short timeframes.
As far as "table pounding" and waiting untill "after" the chicken comes home to roost - that's the just the point !
For these threads to have any "real" livetime idea, or opportunity potential - the commentary has to be "livetime" and it has to real... it can't be of the monday morning armchair quarterback straddle, or after the fact variety...
No one is selling anything here; no one gains anything for being right, or wrong; first, or last.... but; for "any" commentary, or discussion here to be of ANY value - any fear about being "bloodied" , or being "wrong" must be set aside... otherwise it's just more back slappin' and monday morning fish stories... and that isn't why I read this thread, nor why I am here... and nothing of value is generated by that mindset imo.
So; excuse me for being a habitual table pounder... because I wont' waste anyone's time here unless it's an idea, or thought of mine that's worth "table pounding"... and I tend to most appreciate the comments & thoughs of others who are of the same conviction... I get all the monday morning QB, back slappin', mutual aggrandizement society - fish stories I need elsewhere... I come here for idea's - pro, or con that have some specific time relevance, some conviction, some reasoning and some direction... that's all I'm interested in and I allways want to hear both opposing, well thought out & presented Bull & Bear, Pro & Con positions... but, schmarmy ankle bites, misrepresentation & petty jealousies ? - no...
- and Metal; I'm not putting you in that catagory either; but give me some real conviction - some technical, or fundamental "meat & potato's" reasons... some charts & graphs as to "why" I may be wrong, or early... but; please...... no mo euphemisms (VBG)... I got plenty of those from my mom, my dad & my kindergarten teacher... give me SPECIFICS - in a market sense !
I "aint" looking to make any friends here - I subscribe to the Gordon Geko mantra of "the dog" thing... if one is looking for a friend (VBG)...(right Di ?).
... anyway; back on topic - the XAU falling knife !
Here is a two year XAU Chart:
finance.yahoo.com^XAU&d=2ym
2 major moves - in April 1999 and Sept 1999; show me where there was "plenty" of time to recognize and build a position for a move ?
They were "V" bottoms - rapid reversals to the upside - period. Only by identifying a blow off technical entry point & building a position into weakness; or by chance; drawing the magic pick 6 lotto ball & picking the exact bottom if you felt lucky - did anyone catch the move.
Here's a 5 Year XAU Chart:
finance.yahoo.com^XAU&d=5ym
There were only 3 major "technical" breaks - legs breaking well below the 200dma in the last 5 years for the XAU; one in late 1997, one in mid/late 1998 and the one presently... The prior two moves resulted in rapid 50-60% upside moves.
I love that 5 year chart... a grinding Bear from XAU 150 to strong support within the banded trading range of XAU 50 to 90 for the last 18 mos; with only this last significant 200 dma violation - that technically has signaled another great buying opp and a coming minimum 50-60%+ upside "V" bottom on each occurence in the last 5 years.
Compare the last 18 months of the XAU chart with the 18 month period leading up to the big bang of 1987; very similar... sharp decline - tight, grinding banded trading range; with a final capitulation blow off leg that sharply broke under the 200 dma - only to result in a dramatic "V" bottom.
Here is a 17 year XAU chart:
finance.yahoo.com^XAU&d=mym
Like most commodities - it has traded in a bit of a rolling banded trading range.
Anytime one bought the XAU on a penetration sub XAU 65 in which the XAU broke sharply under its 200damn - the XAU posted a "V" bottom and rallied strongly.
1. 1986 - to 1987 - a 2.5 bagger to XAU 150
2. Late 1992 to 1993 - another 2.5 bagger to XAU 150
3. Late 1997 to mid 1998 - a 50% move
4. Late 1998 "V" bottom - a 40-50% move
* we had the Sept 1999 "event" spike
5. The present 200dma violation to new XAU lows
Metal; I'd disagree with the fallacy of waiting untill the "move" is clearly established... as the moves have historically been very rapid in the initial bottom breakouts and are vastly more likely to be "passed" and "ignored" as Dead Cat Bounces... then; it's too late...
Again; the anti- "catching falling knives" mindset and waiting for "the move to clearly establish itself" are both fallacies that really only exist in theory and then only in retrospect.
If anyone waited for the NAZ to "clearly" establish itself to new highs in the fall of 1999 - they got killed in the spring of 2000. If anyone waited for the NAZ to clearly establish itself after this springs April-May Meltdown - they jumped aboard in June-July; only to get whipsawed here yet again. If anyone bought the XAU last Sept as it moved high - to try to sell into higher highs; they got whipsawed.
If anything; the last few years have been "Falling Knife" paradise imo... again; one needs to half-way intelligently pick a technically indicated & hopefully a fundamentally value supported entry opp.
If anyone used any sense in selecting that type of entry into either the NAZ, the OSX, or the XAU during the last few years - one made money; in fact - one made the "Big & Easy" money only by walking headlong into the most severe of sentiment capitulation & technical blow offs - ie: the proverbial falling knives...
The same thing happened here in the OSX. All these late arrivals who started showing up here in April - May when many of us were selling / profit taking & going into strictly a trading mode; have "gone no where fast" - and "we" were met with much criticism every time we took profits.... the OSX has done nothing but eaten those who bought into any established OSX strength since April - with 6, yes 6 whipsaw moves since April and we're still dead in the middle of the banded trading range we broke into in March-April of this year. .... we've quite obviously gone "no where fast" in the OSX since the arrival of all those who wanted to "buy higher & sell higher" , or who waited on that "plenty of time to establish positions" mantra...
...actually imho; for both the NASDQ, or the OSX - catching falling knives & wading into capitulation selloffs & taking relatively quick round trip profits is the ONLY thing that's paid any coin of late...as he who hesitated lost, or got whipsawed - period.
"Waiting for plenty of time, or waiting for "highs to buy into - to hopefully sell higher" - aint been workin' from where I stand... this has been the "era" of catching falling knives - with one caveat that doesn't exist presently for the NAZ; that being that the "falling knife" is "both" technically AND fundamentally supported on a valuation basis... that is where catching further "falling knife" opps in the NAZ is evidently confusing you on the XAU here imo.
The NAZ clearly has a longterm chartline & ominous head & shoulders charts all thru the sector showing that "technically & fundamentally" supported valuation "entry" level to be at about NAZ 2000....
The XAU both technically & fundamentally as a "Falling Knife" here - vastly differs from the NAZ here.
The XAU has penetrated a technical range - with a great track record over 2,5 and 17 years; signaling a buying range; if not also 50-60%+ "V" bottom upside potential. The XAU also has entered a historically cheap level on any valuation metric as well - that is the exact opposite of what is found in the NAZ here.
Time will tell ... but I like the way this XAU -knife is acting right here... and all the warnings signs that I've been watching are falling into place for the NAZ Bear to be longer & deeper than most any expect imo. Only the extraneous factors that can impact the OSX have me "neutral"... as the OSX is at the mercy of the NAZ & overall market whims imo & that requires "money management" discipline being paramount & maintaining some prudent caution & a quick finger on both profit taking & sell stops. |
