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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis

SPY 677.48

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Nov 5 4:00 PM EST

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To: Sam Scrutchins who wrote (61609)	10/30/2000 7:50:22 PM
From: Les H	Read Replies (2) of 99985

WHAT TO EXPECT NOW. October 30, 2000. Ord Oracle. On today's rally on the SPX a 767 uptick readings was recorded. Uptick readings exceeding 600 appear near short-term highs. The "5 day ARMS" came in today at 4.76, which is on the bearish side of neutral. The market is giving signs that it is running into resistance. The previous high on the December S&P's came on October 24 at the 1428.50 level on volume of 1.153 billion shares. If the market tests that area on lighter volume than 1.153 billions shares and a bearish candlestick pattern shows up on that test and a high uptick reading coincides, a potential sell signal could get triggered. That is a lot to ask for, but if these conditions materialize, it should not be ignored. The Nasdaq Composite is giving more bullish signs than the S&P's. For starters the "5 day ARMS" on the Nasdaq has stayed at a higher level in the bullish camp. The "5 day ARMS" on the Nasdaq closed at a new short term high of 7.68 today. Readings above 5.25 are bullish on the Nasdaq. On today's decline the volume shrank to 1.74 billions shares, one of the lightest volume days for a while. When a market pulls back on light volume a bullish occurrence has developed. There may be one more pull back to test the October 18 low near the 3030 area. If that is test is on lighter volume than the October 18 volume (2.50 billions shares), a buy signal could develop that could take the Nasdaq composite to 4300 area. We are bullish on the Nasdaq, but no buy signal yet. We are bullish on gold. We are holding our long position in the XAU. marketweb.com

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