Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD) Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD)

AMD 217.53

+1.5%

Nov 28 4:00 PM EST

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To: AK2004 who wrote (16709)	10/30/2000 9:54:24 PM
From: jim kelley	Read Replies (4) of 275872

If you read very carefully what Otellini said and expunge the editorial comments, you arrive at a different story. 1)Rambus pricing issues: Mr. Otellini admitted that Rambus prices remain at substantial premiums to mainstream SDRAM and said that Intel will have to help with subsidies this quarter and next quarter; he called this "pump priming" to get the Rambus market to critical mass. Mr. Otellini was no more specific than that... 2)Mr. Otellini said that Intel's confidence in P4 and its ability to ramp to volume production naturally has increased as the launch date has gotten closer. P4 will not be narrowly targeted at workstations and servers like the Pentium Pro back in 1995. Mr. Otellini was rather frank about the die size issue: The PC market is not as strong as Intel had expected, which frees up some capacity to ramp P4 faster. 3)On the infrastructure side, Intel is comfortable with both availability and cost and sees no "volume limiters." The recent trend of lower memory prices helps. Although Mr. Otellini admitted that cost reductions across the P4 platform will be important to continue ramping to even higher volumes in 2H/01, he sees no problem getting to substantial volume in 1H/01. 4)He admitted that many of Intel's execution problems have stemmed from the selection several years ago of Rambus DRAM as the next DRAM standard to support Intel's microprocessors (delay of the 820 chipset, the MTH recall, and the Timna product cancellation). 5). Mr. Otellini said that P4 performance will be roughly equivalent to PIII on a clock-for-clock basis, but there will be a clear clock speed separation between the high end of PIII and the low end of P4 (unlike when PIII was introduced and overlapped with PII). The story emerges that INTEL will subsidize RDRAM until its volume reaches critical mass. That the ramp of the P4 will be a lot faster than people formerly thought. They have high confidence in the P4 and that it should perform equivalent to a P3 on a clock for clock basis. This puts performance of a 1.4 GHZ P4 at 40% higher than a 1 GHZ P3 and this blows away a 1.2GHZ Athlon with a PC2100 DDR. Moreover, Intel is saying it can and will produce all the P4 it wants to and is not volume limited. The news for RAMBUS is excellent and the the news for Intel is even better.

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