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Technology Stocks : Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO)

CSCO 76.11

+0.9%

Nov 21 9:30 AM EST

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To: Ed Forrest who wrote (41905)	10/31/2000 7:05:14 AM
From: t2	Read Replies (1) of 77400

For every point that Cisco rises above the 47.00 mark another 10K is added to my coffers. Ed, You may not realize but a lot of the short sellers probably don't want to think about how much was lost in missed opportunities on stocks like Cisco that were "overvalued" for a long time. I would say they deserve credit for getting the market right in the last 2 months and a lot of money could have been made in puts or shorting. If people had not thought this way (pessimism on the techs), I would not have made a dime in the market in the last year or two. This negativity is what helps me beat the market. The Naz gained 86% last year while I was able to do more that 10 times that last year. (of course I played a little in options as well) I don't mind losing a little bit every now and then. However, I am always careful about assessing market conditions every year in October to make sure that something has not changed this year. That is what makes me nervous. My fear has always been that new fund flows will stay away from tech or will be less focussed on techs this year. I have concluded that the investing public is still thinking this is a buying opportunity in tech stock and will pump more money into tech funds. In addition, many funds that abandoned tech in the summer may be looking to buy back into the sector as soon as they see some buying momentum pick up in the Nasdaq OR if they see profit taking in Old Economy stocks.. Of course short covering will help as well. That would lead to people being more sure of this as a buying opportunity and porfolios would shift back into tech. This will also be fueled by the so many strategists/analysts that think that Naz has bottomed. This telco spending slowdown is actually helping to set up a rally for year end. It has caused enough nervousness among investors. If the market was already at 4000, I would be less confident of a rally. I don't see a new high on the Nasdaq but 4500 is probable if the momentum picks up---the strategists like Batipaglia think it will hit 4300 which is why I think it does more than that. Once we see more information on the semiconductor cycle not ending, we should be off to the races. That will still be the key and that is why keep checking for statements from the industry. IMHO, the "gadget" market is just in its infancy and that is why I can't see a slowdown. A lot more of the gadgets are going to have some sort of chip inside. Alcatel's good earnings is also going to help. good luck to all.

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