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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services
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To: JungleInvestor who wrote (77619)10/31/2000 10:22:14 AM
From: MetalTrader  Read Replies (1) of 95453
 
The reason for my caution on energy is the growth prospects in asia. If one looks back into the distant past of the '90's the economic boom was largely the huge growth in asia. For the past decade+ the effect of asia has been the key. Whether boom or bust, asia has been at the bottom of real economic growth.

The demise of oil was the result of the asia collapse. The rebound in oil was largely the result of the marginal increase in demand from asia. Currently, with the exception of China (no small exception to be sure), asian growth forecasts are coming down. THIS is my concern on oil. Fundamentally, the earnings will continue to look good, but this is still a momentum market and in this reactionary market caution is still warranted. I will of course exclude the bulk of the posters here from the "reactionary" broad brush. Gold certainly doesn't qualify as a momentum vehicle :)....yet.
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