Scott,
Hey fella. Good to see ya.
The count i've been working says off the 6/22 peak, we began the largest degree corrective wave that Rambus, Inc.'s short history allows.
From the 5/14/97 launch, Large degree Wave 1 ended on 8/25/97 at 21.5. Large degree Wave 2 completed in an expanded flat long and grueling format, with a of 2 finishing 6/15/98 at 8.88, b of 2 on 1/8/99 at 27.48, and c of 2 on 4/22/99 at 13.75. Then we began the big Wave 3, the one that sent me into retirement <g>. 1 of 3 finished on 7/16/99 at 29.38, 2 of 3 on 12/9/99 at 16.38, 3 of 3 on 3/14/00 at 117.75, 4 of 3 on 5/24/00 at 36, and 5 of 3 on 6/22/00 at 144.5.
Now that brings us to the big wave 4, which is the corrective process we've been in since 6/22/00. We know that since wave 2 was an expanded flat, wave 4 must be a zig-zag. We are getting that zig-zag in perfection, with the 5 waves down of a of 4 completing on 8/11, then a beautiful contracting triangle for b of 4 completed on 10/5, since which we've been in the grand finale of wave 4... wave c.
All we need to do is spot the completion of a 5 wave move down from 10/5, and we will have nailed the entry point for big wave 5 up. This 5 wave move down for c will now (after today's action) obviously be similar in time measurements as a of 4. If identical in time, c of 4 will be completed on 11/23. There was the possibility of this c of 4 nearing completion as an ending diagonal (often a quicker completion than a standard impulse), which led me to post the 46 maximum move. Since that didn't hold, we know we're dealing with a standard 5 wave impulse lower, and today's move was big 3 down of c, with 1 of c completing on 10/13, 2 of c on 10/19, and 3 of c probably saw its price extreme at this morning's low. the 4 of c rally we're now in should stall if it gets back up to 56 (where 1 of c ended). 2 of c looks like a flat, so we should be looking for a zig-zag wave 4 of c up, then followed by the final 5 waves of 5 of c down. This will wrap up Wave 4. Keep in mind that since Wave 1 ended at 21.5 on 8/25/97, Wave 4 could conceivably go that low, but it surely doesn't have to. Wave 4's tend to terminate in the same price range as the previous wave 4 which completed inside the 3rd wave. We know wave 4 of 3 began at 117.75 on 3/14/00 and completed at 36 on 5/24, so big wave 4 will most likely complete inside that range. Today's low was 36.5. The final 5 of c down must do at least a 70 percent retrace from where 4 of c terminated to today's 36.5 low. So if 4 of c retraces all the way to 56, we must retrace back under 43 before 5 of c can be completed.
The big Wave 5, when it begins, is only limited by the size of Wave 3. Wave 5 can be no more than 6 times the size of 3. 3 ran from 13.75 to 144, or 130.25 in size. Times 6 gives us maximum size of 781.5, and if the wave starts from, say 42, we're looking at maximum potential to 823.5. Bare minimum, 5 must retrace at least 70% of wave 4. Wave 4 ran from 144 down to, say, 42, or 102. That gives us a minimum rally back to 113. Looking back at how wave 3 nearly fulfilled its potential gives us a clue as to how large wave 5 might be. Wave 3's may be no larger than 7 times wave 1. Wave 1 completed at 21.5 on 8/25/97. Times 7 is 150.5 in size, added to wave 3's beginning at 13.75 gave us maximum to 164.25, and we ran to 144, which fulfilled 86.5% of wave 3's potential. If wave 5 fulfills at the same percentage, RMBS travels 676.34, added to a WAG of 42 for a starting point for wave 5, and RMBS goes to 718.34. Will the fundamentals allow that? Ask Bilow... He's probably the only one that really knows. <g>
Qualcomm's megamove occurred within it's 5th wave based on the very same wave principles. The party's over for RMBS when this 5th ends, but it could be one of the wildest parties ever thrown on S.I. while it last. <g> |
