Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets! Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets!

LRCX 144.03

+3.2%

2:30 PM EST

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To: Ian@SI who wrote (8971)	10/31/2000 12:36:52 PM
From: Jim Oravetz	Read Replies (1) of 10921

Predicting The Unpredictable Semiconductor Cycle "Soft" period predicted for next twelve months. Recent events reinforce quantitative forecasts, issued more than one year ago, that the Semiconductor Industry would enter a "soft" period in the second half of 2000 and beginning of 2001. Since early 1999, and against the industry's sentiment, Advanced Forecasting, Inc. (AFI), a Cupertino, California-based forecasting firm for the semiconductor and related industries, has predicted that demand for semiconductors would encounter a slower growth rate during the second half of 2000. Contrary to most other forecasters who fell into the common trap of extrapolating the strong IC growth (that began in mid 1998) into the future, as far as 2003, AFI has been alerting its readers of such extrapolations and the danger of building excessive capacity to match the inflated demand. Taken directly from AFI's monthly publication dated March 10th '99: "The (IC) Cycle Forecast indicates the early signs of a plateau forming in Q3-2000. Until then, our forecast expects the IC Industry to climb steeply," and from AFI's May 10th '99 publication: "Our long term forecast indicates a change in direction for the second half of 2000, from a strong to a moderate growth rate." semiconductorfabtech.com FWIW, this is more of an advertisement for AFI's services. Jim

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