THE LIBS BIGGEST NIGHTMARE BUSH WINS IN A LAND SLIDE. CAN YOU SAY MANDATE!!!!!!!!!!
realclearpolitics.com
realclearpolitics.com
October 30, 2000
RCP Electoral College Analysis: Bush 446 Gore 92
We wrote last Monday that "Gore must make a comeback this week in the
national polls, or the election will be all but over." A week later, the Vice
President has failed to make that comeback. As a result, George W. Bush will
almost definitely be the next President of the United States (90% chance or
better). The size of the Bush victory is the only real question remaining .
Since the first debate, Bush has been ahead by at least 2% in our RCP Tracking
Composite. An equal average of the daily tracking polls over the past three
weeks yields the exact same result. In the last week, Bush's smallest lead in our
Tracking Composite was 3.8% and 3.1% in the five-way average of the daily
tracking polls.
With only one week left until the election, there is little reason to believe Gore
will be able to alter this situation. In fact, the preponderance of evidence points
to undecided voters having swung to Bush because of the debates, and this
next week is more likely to see a continuation of that trend, rather than a move
back towards Gore. What is going to change the minds of those undecideds
who have already broken for Bush? The press routine that "voters are going to
finally start paying attention" is nonsense. We heard that before the primaries,
before the conventions and before the debates. The great majority of voters
have been paying attention and have made their choice between the two
candidates. The problem with the press is they either can't believe or don't like
the voters' desicion.
Right now our RCP National Poll Composite, which averages all the recent
major polls, shows Governor Bush ahead 4.6% (47.0 - 42.4). The national press
continues their charade of "it's too close to call" and "it's a dead heat" when an
objective reading of the FACTS makes it clear Al Gore is LOSING. With even
Newsweek and CNN/Time now showing Bush leads of 8 and 6 points
respectively, it is getting very difficult for the press to continue the "dead
heat" spin when referring to the national polls.
With the national polls looking grim for Mr. Gore, the national media has turned
their focus to state polls in order to perpetuate the farce that this is still a 50/50
election. This is a red herring. Keep your eyes on the RCP composites because
they will tell the REAL story. If Bush can maintain his 4.5% lead in the RCP
Tracking Comp and 4.6% lead in the RCP National Comp he will win in an
electoral landslide.
A conservative electoral estimate would call for a Bush win in the
neighborhood of 350-188. However, we suspect Bush will continue to slowly
extend his lead in the national polls as undecideds continue to follow the
post-debates pattern, and break for Governor Bush. On election day, a very
high Republican turnout coupled with dispirited Democrats and an energized
Nader vote will enable Bush to carry Illinois, California, Minnesota, Maine and
Delaware for a 446-92 electoral win. If the Gore campaign continues to implode,
New Jersey and Maryland could also desert the Vice President. Do not be
surprised to see the 1980 popular vote totals of 50.7%, 41.0% and 6.6% repeat
themselves.
In the unlikely event that Gore is able to close the gap to under 2%, THEN the
state polls will become relevant. If that happens, America will have the "dead
heat" race the media has been talking about and Gore would be in a position to
accumulate the 270 electoral votes needed to win. But with no more debates
and Gore unwilling to campaign with President Clinton, there is little reason to
think the trend of this race since the three debates will change. Gore needed to
change the dynamic of this race last week. He didn't, and now he is going to
lose. |
