ahhaha
Thank you for the reply. Frankly, I am not sure how to
respond as we seem to view the market quite differently.
My trading experiences have taught me to rely on the charts
exclusively, ignoring news (media manipulations) and various
external events seemingly influencing equity prices. I have
concluded that charts and their associated tools (chart patterns, trendlines, candlesticks, stochastics, ADX, OBV,
moving averages) do have predictive value (for me).
I believe the root of our disagreement is your assertion
that the stock market is a random walk. I've heard this
before so I know it's not a new idea. But I couldn't disagree more. If price were a random walk, there would be no need for trendlines because there would be no trends. Toss a coin,
price goes up. Toss it again, price goes down. Price would
never move much as over the long run, price would go up or
down 50-50. Centuries old Japanese Candlestick science would
appear a fruitless development as a Maribozu for instance could have no predictive value with price up/down 50% chance.
In a random walk situation, a White Maribozu should be followed by equal # of up as down. No one ever could have figured out such a stick is very bullish.
Additionally, I would be interested to know more about "universal experience is when you rely on stock charts, you lose. The rate of loss is a negative expected return of about
-10%." So far, my experience this year is I'm up over 100%.
Perhaps I do not fit in the "universal"? set although I would
expect "universal" to be all encompassing. Perhaps I am extremely lucky to defy the odds so. Somehow, I don't believe
I could achieve similar results in "Lost Beggas" however. As far as I know, there are no charts to beat the one-armed bandit. One could learn to count cards and tilt the odds a bit in certain games, otherwise professional gamblers would
not exist, only professional losers.
I am not interested in starting a fight; I view the stock
market much like any other game. There are rules (theory) to
be learned, strategy, tactics, a forum where the game is played, players playing with/against each other. Winning/losing is merely the result of the mastery of the various components.
If you can win without the use of charts, I say Power To You...If I can win using charts, I say it's more than luck,
tossing a coin, random walk. I am just one person and this
is just one person's humble opinion so you can take it with a grain of salt.
Respectfully,
Happy Trading
Eichler |
