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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries
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To: tradermike_1999 who wrote (424)10/31/2000 3:58:03 PM
From: Bo Le  Read Replies (1) of 74559
 
Post President Election Stock Market Rally

I think the stage is set for a nice rally. The catalyst will be the end of president election on Nov.7. Here are my reasons:

1. Interests rate will certainly not raise anymore if not start to going down. Based on recent economy data, the Fed has done its job to slow down the economy.

2. Oil price to go back to its normal range. Even the winter is just started, but since Wall Street is always 3 - 6 month ahead, the oil market will soon trade based on what expect to happen in next Spring.

3. Middle East crisis is close to an end after more than 3 weeks blood on the street. All parties in Middle East want peace. Once the initial rage calm down, they will go back to negotiation table.

4. Investor confidence is at its lowest point since 1998 Asia economy downturn. Most yesterday's high flyers are now down 90%+, even though many of them are have a future brighter than ever. The three round Nazdaq corrections this year are
painful and extensive enough to bring many companies at very attractive valuation now. The recent selloff in past 4 weeks have fund managers's hands full of cash.

5. It will not be a fact (but will be a catalyst for market to start rally) to have either Gore or Bush win the election. If Gore win, then the Wall Street will cheer that the Clinton economy legacy will continue. If Bush win, the Wall Street will also cheer based on its perception that GOP is more pro economy and stock market.

Can we see Nazdaq at 4500 by next March? I believe so. If we want to catch the next raising tide, let us make sure we don't miss it when it comes.

My two cents.

Bo
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