IMO, the downtrend is over. Tax selling has peaked, but will continue, and the mutual funds which wanted to dump AMAT have done so. Fundamentals will take over, and we will drift back to near 100 by January. There is a shortage of chips and new uses of chips continue to be developed, eg., HDTV, digital radio, Sony's Playstation, digital photography, satellite positioning, etc. That list is just consumer products, and I'm sure that industrial and commercial products are even a bigger market. AND, the economy is fundamentally sound.
Somehow, I am reminded of an old Barney's clothing store ad, of a bunch of kids in front of a NY tenament talking about the future-- little La Guardia wants to be mayor, little Jolson wanting to be a singer, etc, and then nurdy Barney says to himself "They'll all need clothes".
They'll all need chips.
fred |
