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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis
SPY 684.45+0.1%4:00 PM EST
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To: ahhaha who wrote (61660)10/31/2000 4:40:47 PM
From: Wayners  Read Replies (1) of 99985
 
I challenge this claim (curvilinear motion). Stochastic processes are never curvilinear. To assume they are is to assume that people prefer a roundabout way to get to the money.

Those 3 day moving averages on MCDT look pretty curvy to me. I also think there are plenty of pretty efficient stocks out there, and believe me I don't trade them. You've got to find the ones that aren't efficient. A larger float seems to have a lot to do with the amount of efficiency. People just can't move large positions into and out of low float stocks in a short period of time because quite frankly the liquidity available per unit time just isn't there. Another thing is there isn't one standard valuation formula that everyone uses to determine what a security is worth. Thats what makes a market. In a truely efficient market there would be nobody to take the other side of any trade. It would be inherently obvious what a security was worth and there would be no way to profit except by gambling on the next valuation. There would be no momentum. There would be no momentum carry throughs. Doesn't sound like today's market at all. I see momentum carry throughs a lot. They're pretty easy to find with some real time data and software.
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