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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries
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To: Bo Le who wrote (443)10/31/2000 5:10:59 PM
From: olduvai5  Read Replies (1) of 74559
 
I disagree with a number of your statements:

2) Oil price to go back to its normal range
Not likely before spring and not particularly relevant because it's not crude that is the problem, but refined products. Refining capacity is not able to meet demand and no new capacity is coming online any time soon. Seasonal variations in demand may move above or below production capacity. This is why stockpiles are important and they are way below historic levels while we approach peak demand.

3)Middle East crisis is close to end -
I think this is patently absurd. There is no real effort on either side to resolve differences anymore. Arafat is a captive of his extremists. When presented with a real opportunity to reach an understanding on the crucial issues, he decided he couldn't take that opportunity and survive (personally) the extremists' reactions. Now Barak is at the mercy of his extremists and you can expect much more bloodshed and the possibility of escalation to civil war.

4) Investor confidence may be at a 2 year low, but valuations - even after some 75-90% drop are still way out of whack with historical P-E's. Look hard at the new economy - it's still the old economy. To stay in business, you have to make money and if you make more money with fixed interest instruments, you're a fool not to. High tech stocks with PEs of 50+ don't make sense any more than tulip bulbs did in the century before last.

JMHO
olduvai5
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