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Technology Stocks : Ciena (CIEN)
CIEN 230.45+9.4%Dec 19 4:00 PM EST
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To: jghutchison who wrote (9748)10/31/2000 5:28:42 PM
From: cfoe  Read Replies (3) of 12623
 
Jack – I cannot respond to the eps forecast, as I have not gone that far in my Ciena
analysis work. But here is some perspective on the Q4 revenue per Ciena IR ($000,000)
(Source for historical revenues: SI Profile – CIEN):

Qtrs 1999 2000 y-o-y q-o-q q-o-q
$ $ % Incr % Incr $ Incr
----- ----- ----- ------ ------ ------

Jan 100.4 152.2 51.6 7.7 $11

Apr 111.5 185.7 66.5 22.0 $33

Jul 128.8 233.3 81.1 25.6 $48

Oct 141.4 275.4e 94.8 18.0e $42e

Year 482.1 846.6 75.6 n/a n/a

Observations: I’ll start the only slightly negative interpretation one could make which is
that growth may have slowed a bit in Q4. This year, the 18% sequential growth in Q4 (over
Q3) would be less than in the previous two quarters – not low by any means, but lower
than the sequential growth in Q2 and Q3. Ciena may be beginning to bump up against the
law of large numbers. However, looking back to last year, the Q4-99 grew the slowest of
any quarter sequentially. So it may be that Q4 is a generally slower quarter.

However, that being said, $275.4 fulfills management’s statement that they would
achieve a billion-dollar annual revenue run rate in Q4. It also fits with my feeling that
they would be the $250MM minimum needed to do this by a bit.

Also, the more than 75% y-o-y growth is terrific.

Hope this is clear.
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