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Technology Stocks : Intel Corporation (INTC)
INTC 41.41+2.2%Dec 5 9:30 AM EST

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To: Andrew Shih who wrote (115418)10/31/2000 6:55:22 PM
From: Tenchusatsu  Read Replies (1) of 186894
 
Andrew, in your best-case scenario for AMD, all four of these factors must hold simultaneously:

1) AMD's ASP rises to $100 (from $91)
2) AMD's production rises more than 50%
3) The market grows at a rate which is large enough to accomodate both Intel and AMD
4) Intel stands still

Now here's what I believe:

- #1 and #2 could happen, because AMD has control over those two factors.
- #3 and #4 may or may not happen, since they are totally outside AMD's control.
- If #3 doesn't hold, you can say goodbye to #1.
- From my point of view, #4 is definitely not going to hold.

Maybe that's why AMD stock is a far ways off from where the AMDroids think it should be.

Tenchusatsu
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