Re: P6 has a lot of life left.
It certainly has some life left in it, but the sound of the ticking clock is getting louder. Duron requires a more expensive motherboard than Celeron, so AMD has to sell it for a lower price to compensate for the additional cost. Volume low cost motherboards for Duron won't arrive until around the end of this year. But looking at current pricewatch prices, the top bin Duron still sells for more than the top bin Celeron.
That's unheard of - the "Intel Inside" Celeron with its less expensive motherboards commanded a substantial premium over low end AMD chips until quite recently.
P3 has been holding up, but the slide in what even top bin P3s can be sold for is accelerating. AMD has been having some success positioning Duron against P3 - and as that trend increases, it's pretty easy to see what will happen to P3 prices.
Both AMD and Intel need their new chips - AMD needs Mustang and Intel needs P4. Intel was so far ahead of AMD in capital, brand awareness, and in place capacity that they've been able to absorb the whole Rambus disaster and other delays but they've used up their slack, and the first sign of that is in the Celeron prices.
I don't think P4 can afford to be much more than 10% slower than P3, clock for clock, when the reviewers load up windows and start running the existing programs they've been using for the past year or so.
If P4 really is as bad as some leaked numbers indicate - offering only about 80% of the P3's peformance, clock for clock (which seems almost impossible, given the resources that have gone into its development), then I think Intel has problem.
Here are current pricewatch prices, the times they are a changing:
$1250-Pentium IV 1.5GHz
$264 - Pentium III Xeon
$486 - Pentium III 1GHz
$335 - Pentium III 933
$238 - Pentium III 866
$229 - Pentium III 850
$189 - Pentium III 800 133MHz bus
$192 - Pentium III 800 100MHz bus
$183 - Pentium III 750
$173 - Pentium III 733
$174 - Pentium III 700
$156 - Pentium III 667
$155 - Pentium III 650
$145 - Pentium III 600MHz 512k
$138 - Pentium III 600EB 133MHz bus
$141 - Pentium III 600E 100MHz bus
$142 - Pentium III 600b 133MHz bus
$139 - Pentium III 550MHz 512k
$128 - Pentium III 550E 256k
$103 - Pentium III 533b 133MHz bus
$121 - Pentium III 500e
$129 - Pentium III 500
$101 - Pentium III 450
$60 - Pentium II Xeon 512K
$90 - Pentium II Xeon 450
$110 - Pentium II Xeon 400 1MB
$85 - Pentium II 450
$91 - Pentium II 400
$60 - Pentium II 350
$109 - Pentium II 333
$49 - Pentium II 300
$36 - Pentium II 266
$40 - Pentium II 233
$23 - OverDrive
$91 - Celeron 700
$82 - Celeron 667
$75 - Celeron 633
$70 - Celeron 600
$65 - Celeron 566
$67 - Celeron 533 PPGA
$73 - Celeron 533 FCPGA
$64 - Celeron 500 PPGA
$60 - Celeron 466 PPGA
$59 - Celeron 433
$64 - Celeron 400
$57 - Celeron 366
$499 - AMD Thunderbird 1.2GHz
$351 - AMD Thunderbird 1.1GHz
$254 - AMD Thunderbird 1GHz
$223 - AMD Thunderbird 950
$166 - AMD Thunderbird 900
$147 - AMD Thunderbird 850
$129 - AMD Thunderbird 800
$108 - AMD Thunderbird 750
$99 - AMD Thunderbird 700
$60 - AMD K6-III 3DNow
$67 - AMD K6-2 550 3DNow
$57 - AMD K6-2 533 3DNow
$44 - AMD K6-2 500 3DNow
$48 - AMD K6-2 475 3DNow
$45 - AMD K6-2 450 3DNow
$55 - AMD K6-2 400 3DNow
$69 - AMD K6-2 380 3DNow
$48 - AMD K6-2 350 3DNow
$53 - AMD K6-2 333 3DNow
$44 - AMD K6-2 300 3DNow
$98 - AMD Duron 800
$73 - AMD Duron 750
$56 - AMD Duron 700
$45 - AMD Duron 650
$40 - AMD Duron 600
$254 - AMD Athlon 1GHz 3DNow
$234 - AMD Athlon 950 3DNow K7
$173 - AMD Athlon 900 3DNow K7
$165 - AMD Athlon 850 3DNow K7
$134 - AMD Athlon 800 3DNow K7
$98 - AMD Athlon 750 3DNow K7
$94 - AMD Athlon 700 3DNow K7
$72 - AMD Athlon 650 3DNow K7
$56 - AMD Athlon 600 3DNow K7
$57 - AMD Athlon 550 3DNow K7
$64 - AMD Athlon 500 3DNow K7
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