David- OT-
<<and no one who began investing in 'post-1960s bull market blow-off/1970s secular bear market' time-frame has direct experience with the current condition. This _is_ different.>>
I respectfully submit you are wrong (except to the extent that every time is different). Perhaps you may recall a little unpleasantness in October '87. I got home that night, listened to Nightly Business Report, and thought, "Gee, I lost a lot of money today. Oh well, I'm back to where I started this year." (course I wasn't margined then as I am today). But I recall pundits like Ellaine Garzerelli saying, after the Crash of '87, how dangerous the market was and how individual investors should wait until the situation became clearer. Like a fool, I believed them, and didn't plow everything I could muster into the market at that time. But my point is there was a much greater sense of dread (with legitimate reasons, albeit different ones to today) in October '87- with many shallow comparisons to the Crash of '29 and the ensuing Depression- than there is today.
FWIW, I recall JK Galbraith and Larry Kudlow having a televised discussion the week of Black Monday, '87. As I recall, Galbraith sneeringly said how he hoped that Kudlow was largely out of the market and what a bleak future there lay in store given the accumulated sins of capitalist excess. Kudlow simply differed and, while acknowledging the dangers of the stock market, suggested that was not a bad time to buy.
If you wait until "the situation becomes clear" you will miss out on major buying opportunities (you may also avoid bankruptcy).
Larry |
