Tinker, I have been holding my breath waiting for you to respond to the INTC/RMBS rumors
I swear that I have (hmmm, could be a got a few Fool posts mixed up with SI however.)
Here we go:
Well here is a fine post by HandsofFate on the Fool board summarizing my RMBS comments of yesterday
boards.fool.com
And oh yeah, just a wee bit of little news
biz.yahoo.com
As I've stated in a few posts (hmmmm, not sure if I stated it on SI though) it seems to me that INTC is kind of a red herring at this time. RMBS' days of of being INTC's "bitch" as somebody so eloquantly put it seem to be numbered. RMBS stands on its own.
RMBS now has approximately 40-45% of the DRAM industry under contract for SDRAM, DDR and RDRAM. RMBS' forward P/E, after earnings revisions following this deal is likely to be something like 39. As stated in previous plsts, RMBS also has market opportunities which are actually larger than the DRAM industry in first receiving royalties on the controllers (which Samsung is paying here), and INTC and AMD will also pay, and then spreading into the communication market if they can.
In the end RMBS still must be successful at the current litigation. This litigation is the one thing keeping RMBS out of the tree. Hey, how about a "landed gorilla not quite ready for the tree?" RMBS' case in the litigation is very strong both from a legal and practical matter. I've had a request to discuss the legal case more thoroughly, and I'll see what I can later on if I get the time. Practically speaking, and this is straight from game theory 101, Rambus has declared if we beat you in court we don't license you. This threat is very credible in my opinion, at least to the players like Micron who RMBS can afford to put out of business. Here is Micron's choices. Save 2-3% on royalities or go to trial and if you lose face the complete loss of our core business, DRAM. Absent an iron clad, shut and closed case, a rational player has no choice but to settle.
Tinker
P.S. Mark Edelstone has stated that if Samsung signs next years EPS will rise to at least $1.25. Cheers all. |
