Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets! Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets!

LRCX 155.15

+2.1%

3:59 PM EST

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To: Q. who wrote (8976)	11/1/2000 1:06:10 PM
From: Proud_Infidel	Read Replies (2) of 10921

I must take issue with several of Deahna's comments: a more rapid deceleration in global GDP growth in C2001, we reduce our C2001 semi industry revenue growth forecast from 30-35% to 25%. If there is a rapid deceleration in Global GDP growth, all companies will be affected more or less. Why is AMAT a downgrade trading at less than 20X '01 EPS? A downgrade after a 60% fall no less? This while KO trades at 80x earnings and is growing in the single digits. When the likelihood that a contraction in lead times during the next 3-6 months is combined with . I do not know where he is getting this since several equipment makers have RECENTLY stated quite the opposite. Nikon or Canon recently came out and stated they were booked through 2002 without any mention of lead times decreasing. When the Sept data is reported by the SIA tonight, it should clearly reflect a deceleration in Y/Y revenue growth from 53% (Aug) to 45% (Sept) September has traditionally been the SLOWEST month for growth; this should in no way be taken as an idicator for what is to come in '01, in and of itself. It is all too easy to come out now and jump on the bandwagon that these companies will have a difficult time with YOY comparisons. That is a no-brainer since '00 has been exceptional coming off the lows. However, nowehere in the report do I see estimates for global IC spending in the years ahead, which should be the baseline by which all estimates for the equipment sector are made. If there is a global slowdown as stated with an according slowdown in semi sales, wouldn't cos. like INTC also be hit? Yet there is no mention of this in the report. Logically, it would follow that virtually ALL semi and semi-equipment cos should be hit. But they are not; and this the rub. Personally, I believe the SEC should implement a law(it is easier in theory) that would follow the trades of a MSDW on the day of a downgrade/upgrade, along with the day before and after. My belief is that they are buying, not selling stocks like AMAT today, contrary to what they may issue in their report. Brian

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