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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services
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To: Sharp_End_Of_Drill who wrote (77695)11/1/2000 2:26:35 PM
From: energyplay  Read Replies (1) of 95453
 
Great quote !

"mission is to remove that money from stupid people in the lowest risk fashion possible"

Now I keep thinking about the old saying about poker games -

something to the effect of "If you sit in on a game and you can't figure out who the sucker is, it's you !"

So the suckers in the Energy area have been the people (probably mainly insitutions) SELLING us stocks -

1. People who thought $16 crude & $2 NG would last
2. People who thought that OPEC could/would turn on the tap

That's why we could BUY all our drillers & E&P stock cheap.

and now they are -

3. People who don't think about tankers and other to transport oil (like that analyst that was mentioned by several posters)

4. Slightly more reasonable people who think crude will stabalize around the low to mid $20s. We have to pay more to buy from these people, but not much. IF we have a real hard landing this group will look smart, since they got a good price and got out early.

We still have not gotten to the "panic" stage where we will have people to BUY our stocks -

4. People who will think that crude will go to $100 bbl. and STAY THERE. We got some of that in 1979 -1980. No reason drillers couldn't become the optical stocks of 2001... ;-)

(Actually, there are lots of reasons)

I want to sell a little to the smart buyers who realize that crude will be in the $30s and NG in over $4.00 for a while.

I want to sell most of my holdings when NG is at $6.00 and it's real cold. I want to sell to buyers who don't realize that it gets cold in the winter and warm in the summer, and that this "pattern" is likely to continue. I'm sure there a lot people like that, they've been all over tech stocks.

Then I may look at opportunities created by people who belive the U.S. dollar will stay high forever even with the trade imbalance...

I'm waiting cold weather & for the dumb buyers
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