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Pastimes : Clown-Free Zone... sorry, no clowns allowed

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To: pater tenebrarum who wrote (32951)	11/1/2000 2:36:41 PM
From: flatsville	Read Replies (2) of 436258

heinz-- A couple of weeks ago when the phrase "oil as a weapon" first crossed the wires I made a gut based call and said something like "this market is fvcked." Everything that's happened in the interim has validated that call...so far... This oil shock feels different. Remember our discussion from about a week ago? You indicated oil would have to go to 70-80 U$D per barrel to be comparable to past oil shocks (in 1980 $s?) I countered that $40 would probably be the psychological breaking point for most given that we've never started an oil shock from such depleted distillate reserves (as far as I know.) So far this situation is deteriorating quite nicely. Constrained refining capacity, declining distillate stocks, decreasing tanker capacity, a few OPEC nations finding brass balls, overall rising energy prices for electricity and natural gas, persistent trouble in the ME. My longs are heavily weighted in oil/energy. I keep looking for a reason to sell and can't find a one just yet.

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