Thanks. I still hold a lot of FCEL. It is hard to guess where it might go in the short run, but at least so far I haven't seen anything to change my opinion that, some years down the line, it could be doing many billions in sales.
I think one should keep an eye on what happens with the fc/turbine hybrid test that will start in a few months. By using the waste heat from the fc to power the turbine, the combo in theory (i.e., not the test unit, but a larger, optimized version) could have an electrical efficiency approaching 80%. That would be a "killer ap", potentially giving FCEL a huge share of all power generation, distributed or not, and a market cap potentially in the many tens of billions.
On the other hand, we still need to see proof that the cost projections that the DOE auditors have made will in fact be achieved. Also, the question remains of how strong the orders will be in the early stages of commercialization, before the company has costs low enough to charge low prices. So there is still plenty of risk.
But I think the risk of failure is much less than with Ballard, which still has many times FCEL's market cap. And there have been a rash of marginal companies going public with market caps near $1 billion that haven't a fraction of the proprietary position that FCEL has. So, while it is certainly overpriced on near term numbers, FCEL is still a bargain compared to others in the field. |
