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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis

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Jan 26 4:00 PM EST

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To: RocketMan who wrote (61735)	11/1/2000 11:30:58 PM
From: ru2	Read Replies (1) of 99985

SI: StockTalk: Market Trends and Strategies : MDD - Market Direction Discussion Reply to Post #61735 Since this is civil and polite I'll respond but I am not sure how quickly this will relate to market direction.Or Idea's that will makes us money. ######################################################### Ahhaha is right about the market fitting a random walk model, ########################################################## I'm not so sure about this. I did not read every lenghty post on this subject. My initial response to Haha was addressing Loud insulting arrogance sucking up bandwidth and hiding behind some supposed logical reasoning. that His "chart" of a 10,000 coin toss was "proof" that Eichler was wrong. I did not read every post since most of it seemed not to be anything that was going to give me clue to market direction or going to be able to add to my small bag of trading tricks. However until Kymar's post which I really did'nt read because of time constraints no one seemed to bother to define terms or explain what they meant by a 10,000 coin toss, except Happy. Happy gave equations that were clearly defined but wrong in at least one instance. x = x +1 , so 2 = 2+1, which is 2=3 well this is wrong but at least I knew that. I was not completely sure what everyone else was talking about. Kymar's post seemed well defined at first glance but as I said, I was busy as I ran into that one. Eichler PM'ed me and made it sweet and to the point. Take a coin. Toss it. If it comes up heads add a dollar if it comes up tails take way a dollar. I don't think it's random. I mean how do you gap down 5$ with this system? If every tic is one dollar away from the 2 adjacent tics, is this random? Still I saw the logic and it did seem to relate clearly to what people were talking about although I still was not %100 sure what that was since the word random was used so much when it did not apply. As in this example above. So using this model I am wondering if anyone would argue that 10,000 coin tosses would ever look like a chart of a market leader such as JNPR from the New years 2000 to date. There were some clear long term trends with JNPR. Would a coin toss chart as Eichler described ever produce such a long term trend? I can see it producing relatively short term trends. 5 tails in a row 2 heads then 7 tails in a row, 3 heads then 6 tails That would be a clear short term down trend. Maybe even a tradeable one. But would anyone argue that the long term trend, say 100 or more tosses would be anything but sideways action? I have never done it so I can't know for sure. I think not. Although interesting I am not so sure how this relates MEANINGFULLY to market direction since the markets are so manipulted anyway. I' rather listen to Bearra talk about the rydex ratio or talk about why gaps are so often filled or why fib retracements seem to work so well on ALL time frames. Or what the heck are stochastics anyway and why do dey work? BWDIK Ru2

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