jack, do u know much about Holographix's technology(Avanex takeover from May)?...they are evidently working on transmission, reflective and microlens gratings, mirrors on diff. substrates, and gratings on concave mirrors(will replace multiple filters)...they are hoping to mass produce by 3rd Q of 2001...if successful, will be able to mass produce their photonic processors at very low cost...with respect to the VIPA technology(a.k.a. Powershaper), i believe the patents are shared by AVNX and Fujitsu(not Furakara...but i could be wrong)...imo, chromatic dispersion technolgy will not be the "homerun" for AVNX...GLW working on fiber with substantial less dispersion qualities if my memory serves me correct and might make this product obsolete...also, since Corvis recently sent an optical signal 2500km's in Broadwing's network without regeneration, others apparently have this type of gadget also...imo the PowerMux product is the jewel...by changing the distance between the reflective mirrors, the PowerMux evidently can be tuned to split lambdas into 100,000 or more...this could ultimately be a blow to the pure photonic switch makers as there could be so much bandwith in the near future that we could send data from point A to point B without the need to switch...AVNX has already demonstrated 800 channels at 3 terabits per second on a single fiber in the lab...personally, i think the next wave in photonics is with photonic chips...the only way prices will come down is if the people at jdsu stop making all those parts by hand...this can only happen with automated technologies(ie-chips)...the winner in this sector will be the next Intel imo...co's like Lumenon, Bookham and Hyperchip worth a look...btw, i agree that Gilder does go abit overboard, but i think he is very high on AVNX cause they are the only co. that i know of that can potentially split a lambda into 1000's and perhaps millions of channels...there is something to be said there.
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