from ClearStation:
"'kensey' has recommended ARBA (Short) at Nov 1 2000 9:01AM
Ariba Inc (NASDAQ:ARBA)
Symbol Last Time Change High Low Volume
ARBA 120.56 6:37PM -5.81 126.62 117.44 5,685,000
'kensey' said:
Wed Nov 1 07:57:55 2000
chart has gone 'flat'.
b2b doesnt me fired up these days. i guess i could be ... inkling that the
topline coming in seems like slops spilling out of the bucket. it is more
in 'how they say it' than in'what they say' cause you know they are probably
talkin smack anyway i too have been punch drunk! i know the feeling and i
know the smell. and i know what time it is.
also, the take during and the buzz after the past report was of much and as much
better, and sustained, this time than or compared to the last time.
sustained!! key word and variable here!
PROGNOSIS : horizontal at best. the action that is going on now is that which
usually proceeds a decline : horizontal flapping where volume revs way up, shares
turn over, the width of the price bars expands, and what you get instead of
lines is something resembling fuzz. fuzz and churn indicate a lack o f consensus.
the only thing really has to be there for a move is consensus .
here, an extreme lack of it (or opposite of it) accompanied the volume jack
makes for a suitable short candidate. hedge longs with shorts due to prolonged
period of high volatility. the thinking being 'be damned if i'm going to get hit
square on the forehead if the market tanks!' or 'ok, if the market tanks i only
want to lose X dollars ... lets figure out to make that happen'.
not in a position to flip the burger. dont want to flip the burger. no need to flip the
burger. who knows, stocks may be up from here. reality is, i have no clue whatsover
what is going to happen in the markets and only a semblance of a desire to figure
it all out and partly not much in the mood so in affect (to kill time, mostly) a defensive
(or hedged) posture and a bland strategic approach. or, autopilot.
important how one acts when you dont know more than you do? perhaps then
again, i've had conviction ream me just as hard as anything else! remember all the
glowing things i was saying about AMCC 'just the other day'? did that lend bias
the day ship nortel ran aground, exploded, caught fire , whatever?
but i would venture to say that it's 'a gimme' that ARBA hits 100 at least once over
the next two weeks. it may not stay there for long but dip down with the big toe
you betcha!
only thing to throw that scenario would be price north of 140, which caps the
recent range of trade and at which point buyers cringe..
'remember the Maine!'.
'remember the tight price bars!'
arba is also getting flung about by huge buy bursts 'someone' 'all acting in tandem'
trading for points.
for instance, on october 19 at 2:23 PM a gate crash of buying occurred that would
have been impressive if it hadnt been so shameless in the simultaneous wash sales.
or the afternoon of 10/26 at 3:00PM : a bar rage of buying brought the stock from 98
to 132 in less than an hour. again, wash sales and back below 110 on 10/28.
some press on 'competition' :
upside.com
and no, i wouldnt be surprised at all if it turned out that 'b2b' and 'exchange'
software wasnt that hard to write. someone mentioned that to me at a wedding,
which is the last place youd expect someone to lean over with 'did you know
that all the b2b software out there really sucks? remember that lab during
our junior year where we had to ....'
'exchanges' and 'trading communities' and 'auctions'. ooh my!
upside.com
upside usually serves as a good gauge of recent buzz/press/signews. just from the
headlines you can glean most of it.
how about the thinly orchestrated run-up on PPRO by 'sell side analysts and
crew' on oct 16-20 that jacked the stock up to (a split adjusted) 50? then watch
it subsequently gets CRUSHED as everyone and his brother didnt get out
or just pile out but got _the hell_ out creating a mini crash that brought
the price (to a split adjusted 20) in two weeks. the wires hop with
'PPRO 100 dollar price target', 'PPRO the SINGLE BEST IDEA blah blah blah'
with no less than 6 analysts 'upgrading or upstroking' timed to a T so it
all goes off right with a bang in front of the advent of ARBA posting up earnings
and then whammo 20 million shares come in from the sell side as the stock goes
'corrects' (true meaning of the word ) from 50 to 30 in three days.
point being, bogus runs and flagrant manipulation lends credence to the
'flim flam' theory.
of course, topline growth : still impressive. ARBA did 39 million in
1999 and 280 million in 2000.
kensey" |
