Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services Message Board

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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services

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To: jim p. holcomb who wrote (386)	5/25/1997 1:08:00 PM
From: Razorbak	of 95453

Jim: <<I can not comprehend that the convenience of the Internet will cut that much into the energy sector ... We cannot live in a cocoon and relie on the Internet for our every needs. I will give the researchers their due; but let's have a little common sense enter into this equasion.>> That's exactly the same response I hear from other industry players. Hence my skepticism, but I remain open-minded to actual results. FWIW, I follow CERA closely, and I have a great deal of respect for their "big picture" forecasting calls. That's their forte. What else would I expect from a company chaired by Daniel Yergin, author of "The Prize"? [Rhetorical question] IMHO, Yergin has historically been more right than wrong with his forecasts, so when he makes a call, I usually consider it objectively, even if it doesn't make intuitive sense at first. For example, look at the anemic level of U.S. mogas demand last year (0.7% year-on-year growth) versus the bullish industry consensus (over 2%). What happened to mogas demand??? People were driving less fuel efficient vehicles for the first time in over a decade. The "family car" had virtually become the "family truck". Federal highway speed limits had recently been increased. The economy was booming. Why didn't this translate into higher mogas demand??? It could have been the weather, I guess, but does that explain the huge delta between forecast and actual? Jet fuel demand was at record levels. Go figure... This kind of discrepancy definitely makes me pause and think... That's why I'm keenly following this year's mogas figures. It's supposed to be another booming year! <Knock on wood!>

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