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Politics : Idea Of The Day

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To: IQBAL LATIF who wrote (34947)	11/2/2000 3:28:33 PM
From: PMG	Read Replies (1) of 50167

Well, I cannot yet nail it but I have a bad feeling (with profits). The signals are still ambigious. For instance, from some talk I hear and read I recognize that luxury goods do over-proportionally well. Somehow I connect this to the end of a boom cycle. Maybe because it shows that people get less excited about earning prospects and so address the side of consuming the fruits. My friend in VC firms and in the cool internet startups get less and less excited. The feeling has changed from euphoria to business as usual. As a reason for the decline in consumer confidence the decline in stock prices has been cited as an "excuse". IMO the problem is the lack of a new vision. (BTW perhaps it's going to be this one? The wired artice is not new but a must-read: siliconinvestor.com I think we are at least at a pivotal point right now. Maybe we can keep mania going till next April. But I take it as a fact that e.g. the NDX is artificially held up (above 3000). There would be no need to do this if everything was o.k. I think one reason why GDP is still running high is that people are still on a very high level of personal motivation. But adrenalin levels decrease with stock prices. So we are really at a critical point... I know that my analysis may seem a bit unusual...but to me this sounds to reasonable to ignore... PMG

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