Thank you for defining the essence of chart analysis (geez!)...
If you don't think we had extreme levels of pessimism (via ViX, Trin, etc), then I'm not sure what you're looking at....In the media, they're were enough cover articles about "the party is over", "the crash of 2001", etc. to claim some sort of emotional bottom.......I remember March 2000 well, and the media outlook was much, much different than just a few days ago.....In October, I got several calls from VC, investment banker friends telling me the party was over for a long, long time......These folks in March were singing a much different tune...
(Let's face it, nowadays, there are so many differing media outlets, including websites, that every view is representing, positive or negative...for every Joe Battipaglia, you have access to a Robert Prechter..)
Time will tell whose right and whose wrong here...there is likely enough evidence to make either argument, but good luck trying to find those perfect bottoms....a lot of folks tried in 1998 (and failed, and sat it out)...I'm glad I didn't.. |
