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Technology Stocks : How high will Microsoft fly?
MSFT 478.04-1.1%Jan 8 3:59 PM EST
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To: cksla who wrote (1409)5/25/1997 4:16:00 PM
From: mozek   of 74651
 
Robert,
Since I haven't exchanged posts with you before, I'll assume that this is an honest request for info. I'd prefer not to get into a long debate, but I'll be happy to give you my opinion. I have 3 reasons why I think that the Java processor is not the be-all end-all of thin clients or even Java platforms.

1. I flat-out don't believe Sun's performance claims. I think they were pulled out of a hat by marketing folks. This is based on the fact that, a) Java bytecodes average less than 1/3 the size of x86 instructions, b) our JIT compiler has a 2x expansion ratio, leading me to believe that c) x86 chips executing Java code with a good compiler run about the same or fewer number of instructions as Java chips executing Java code. This coupled with the fact that x86 chips have better pipelining support, Microsoft has new garbage collection technology, and many of the Java bytecodes will require a reasonable amount of microcode leads me to believe that Java chip performance will not live up to its hype.

2. Java chips are not well suited to general purpose platforms. There is a world of computing beyond Java that will not go away in the near future.

3. I truly believe we will have a faster, more functional, more scalable Java platform than Sun.

That really is my opinion and not marketing. I guess we'll find out as the story unfolds.

Thanks,
Mike
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